Introductory Context
"The decision tree is designed to be used during the weekly position review and at any time a position's status triggers the assessment protocol from Topic 21.2. It begins with the highest-priority question (is the stop-loss triggered?) and works through the decision hierarchy to identify whether the position needs no action, a specific adjustment, or a full close. "
The Decision Tree - Level 1: Stop-Loss Assessment
Question 1.1: Has the stop-loss been triggered? For short options: has any short option reached 1.5x (or 2x for straddles) the original premium? For long options: has the option lost 50 percent of the entry premium to time decay without the underlying reaching the target? For iron condors: has the underlying breached any short strike? YES → Close the full position immediately. No further questions. NO → proceed to Question 1.2. Question 1.2: Is the underlying within the proximity alert zone of any short strike? (For options with more than 5 sessions to expiry: within 60 percent of the wing width; for 1 to 4 sessions to expiry: within 40 percent of the wing width.) YES → proceed to Level 2 (adjustment assessment). NO → proceed to Question 1.3. Question 1.3: Has the profit target been reached? (80 percent credit collected for income strategies, 100 percent premium gain for directional.) YES → close the position. NO → no action required this session. Continue monitoring at next scheduled review.
The Decision Tree - Level 2: Adjustment Assessment
At Level 2 (the proximity zone has been entered but stop has not triggered): Question 2.1: Is the directional thesis for the position still valid? For directional positions (long calls, puts): is the underlying still moving in the thesis direction? For income positions (condors, strangles): is the market still in the range-bound or moderately trending environment the entry assumed? YES → proceed to Question 2.2. NO → close the position. The thesis is invalidated; adjustment maintains exposure to a failed analytical premise. Question 2.2: Is there a roll or adjustment available that passes the EV improvement test from Topic 21.2? YES → proceed to Question 2.3. NO → close the position. The adjustment does not justify the economics. Question 2.3: Has the position already been adjusted once (the one-roll maximum)? YES → close the position. No second adjustments. NO → proceed to Level 3 (adjustment selection).
The Decision Tree - Level 3: Adjustment Selection
At Level 3 (valid trigger, intact thesis, economics positive, first adjustment): Question 3.1: What is the primary risk dimension under pressure? Delta (the underlying has moved toward a short strike or away from a long option's target)? Vega (IV has spiked or is about to)? Theta (time is running out faster than the thesis develops)? Time → Roll to later expiry (Topic 21.3, 21.4). Strike → Roll up/down to safer strike (Topic 21.3, 21.5, 21.9). Structure → Convert to spread (Topics 21.6, 21.7, 21.8). Vega → Adjust vega exposure (Topic 21.11). Delta → Rebalance delta (Topic 21.10). Profit → Scale out (Topic 21.12).
Decision Tree Summary
L1.1: Stop triggered? YES → Close. NO → L1.2. L1.2: In proximity zone? YES → L2. NO → L1.3. L1.3: Profit target reached? YES → Close. NO → No action. L2.1: Thesis still valid? YES → L2.2. NO → Close. L2.2: EV-positive adjustment available? YES → L2.3. NO → Close. L2.3: First adjustment? YES → L3. NO → Close (one-roll max). L3: Primary risk = Time → Roll out. Strike → Roll up/down/wing roll. Structure → Convert to spread. Vega → Vega adjust. Delta → Delta adjust. Profit available → Scale out.
Using the Decision Tree in Practice
The decision tree is most valuable as a weekly review tool. At each Monday morning weekly review: open the position log. For each active position: run the Level 1 assessment. For any position that triggers Level 2 (proximity alert): run the full Level 2 and Level 3 assessment. The tree should be completed for each active position in approximately 2 to 3 minutes -- the binary yes/no questions are fast to answer when the position's parameters are clearly documented in the trade journal. The assessment result for each position is one of: no action, specific adjustment, or close. Execute the specified action immediately after the assessment.
The decision tree is the options management equivalent of the medical triage protocol: a systematic sequence of questions that diagnoses the position's current condition and prescribes the specific response. Like triage, it does not require the practitioner to hold all the possible responses in mind simultaneously -- the sequential structure guides to the right response step by step. And like triage, its value is greatest under pressure: when the market is moving adversely and the emotional impulse is to do something, the decision tree provides the analytical filter that ensures the something done is the right thing.
Print the Decision Tree and Keep It at the Trading Desk
The decision tree's value is zero if it is only remembered conceptually but not used in practice. Print the decision tree summary from the defBox above, laminate it, and keep it at the trading workstation. At every weekly review and every time a position triggers an alert: consult the physical decision tree before taking any action. The physical reference prevents the cognitive shortcuts that lead to premature closes (emotional) or excessive holds (optimistic bias). The tree is the external constraint that overrides both impulses.